COVID-19 Mortality Prediction

Global demand for a COVID-19 vaccine and some therapeutics will exceed the initial limited supply. A personalized mortality risk prediction calculator during COVID-19 pandemic can help identify individuals at highest risk of COVID-19 death and guide allocation prioritization efforts. This risk prediction model is calculated based on an individual's characteristics and pre-existing comorbidities.

Individual Characteristics


Estimated risk:

Your estimated mortality risk is

than the lowest-risk population.*

* Our model predicted the lowest risk among White women aged 65-69 with no prior comorbidities; this group was used as the comparison in this calculator. The estimated mortality risk was calculated based on a model that used data from April 1 to August 31, 2020. We only displayed comorbidities that were significantly associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality.

Disclaimer: This software is provided 'as is' and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. In no event shall the authors or contributors be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, exemplary, or consequential results however caused and on any theory of liability, whether in contract, strict liability, or tort arising in any way out of the use of this software, even if advised of the possibility of such result.

Reference: Dun, C. et al, A Machine Learning Study of 534,023 Medicare Beneficiaries with COVID-19: Implications for Personalized Risk Prediction. Under review.